Three product bets. Each dated to die unless it earns its keep.
reviewed 2026-06-09
These are the bets, in writing. The bet is what we believe. The test is what each product has to do to count as alive. The deadline is when we decide. Kill criteria are what makes us pull the plug. Reviewed quarterly. If a bet doesn't appear here, it's not a real bet — it's a hobby.
// active bets3 live · 0 shipped to paying users · as of 2026-06-09
bet 01 · health · india
Stiqsy
—days to decision · 2026-09-30
current0 weekly activespre-launch · testflight · as of 2026-06-09
Bet
Adults on GLP-1 therapy in India will adopt a clean dose-tracking tool that produces a doctor-ready PDF. Monetization comes from pharma B2B and telehealth referrals, not consumer subscriptions.
Test
1,000 active weekly trackers + 1 signed LOI with a pharma or telehealth partner.
Deadline
2026-09-30 — end of Q3.
Kill criteria
Under 200 weekly actives by deadline, OR no pharma/telehealth conversation past first call. Then: pivot or kill, no soft-landing.
status · testflight · 8+ builds · rebranded from myglpcare 2026-05-24last reviewed · 2026-06-09
bet 02 · markets · india
Premium Chasers
—days to decision · 2026-12-31
current0 paying userspre-launch · beta · as of 2026-06-09
Bet
Indian F&O retail traders want educational tools (payoffs, Greeks, paper trading) more than signals. We can build a paying education product without SEBI Research Analyst registration, which is the gate before any signal product.
Test
100 paying education-only users at ₹299–499/mo, with retention >60% at month 2. No signals required to clear the bar.
Deadline
2026-12-31 — end of Q4.
Kill criteria
If education-only retention is under 40% at month 2, or if we can't hit 100 paying without leaning on signals, the unit economics don't work here — kill, don't pivot into a SEBI-gated product.
status · v1.0.0-beta · 387 commits · razorpay live · flutter rebuildlast reviewed · 2026-06-09
bet 03 · cloud learning · global
DrillKloud
—days to decision · 2027-03-31
current0 payingplatform pre-launch · waitlist live · as of 2026-06-09
Bet
Engineers preparing for Azure work want hands-on sandboxes with designed failure modes and explain-it-back checkpoints — not lecture videos. They'll pay if sandbox unit economics hold.
Test
Public launch by 2026-09-30, then 500 paying users/month on the platform within 6 months. Gross margin per active >50% after Azure pass-through.
Deadline
2027-03-31 — six months post-launch decision point.
Kill criteria
Waitlist → paid conversion under 5%, OR per-user Azure burn breaks gross margin past 50%. Kill or pivot to a synthetic-sandbox model.
status · waitlist live · provisioner v1 design · amber brand may 2026last reviewed · 2026-06-09
// killed betskept for the lesson, not the closure
2026-04-17
OpenClaw — persistent agent fleet runtime that authored most of the early product code.